For months the pundits on the various news network have told us that the presidential contest in November will pit Hillary Clinton vs. Rudy Giuliani or, perhaps, McCain or Thompson. Today, Clinton finished third (behind Obama and Edwards), and Giuliani got 4% of the Republican vote, McCain 13% and Thompson 14%. Huckabee won the Republican straw poll with 34%. It is certainly possible that the Iowa contests will mean little or nothing come November but, in general, pundits are not worth one ounce of my sweat.
- Some pundits have already started preparing us for the Obama debacle to come. They are saying that it is quite different to be the front-runner (which he now has become) and that the Clinton campaign will rip him a new one. See point 1) above for instructions on how to take the pundits' opinion.
- Obama is the real thing, at least in terms of his ability to mobilize the troops. He came from behind to defeat not only Clinton, who had been fading in recent polls, but Edwards as well. He also managed to win districts in rural Iowa, where blacks are as rare as straight, monogamous Republican congressmen.
- Opinion polls are not all they seem. For months, polls have been telling us a story which had little or nothing to do with what went down today at the... polls.
- One staggering fact: 235,000 voters turned out for Democrats, barely over 100,000 for Republicans. Yet, Bush carried Iowa in 2004. Not against the Satan's offspring, but against a rather bland Democratic candidate. I submit that when things are bad, and they were pretty bad in November '04, people vote along party lines. Draw your own conclusions on the legitimacy of the '04 vote.
So, now that you know all you need to know about pundits, polls, and the Obama juggernaut, go read up on "caging" (start with this article on Bradblog), to learn what the Con Men are doing to make sure they can steal the 2008 election as well.